The cleantech and battery storage revolution is demolishing the myth that a very high level of renewables can’t be integrated into the electric grid. In merely two decades, Europe alone will be 90% powered by renewable sources, experts say.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) recently released their annual energy outlook which predicts that “by 2040, renewables make up 90% of the electricity mix in Europe, with wind and solar accounting for 80%.”
How is this possible? “Cheap renewable energy and batteries fundamentally reshape the electricity system,” explains BNEF. For example, wind power globally has dropped 49% in cost since 2010, and both solar and battery prices have plummeted 85%.
What’s most remarkable is that Europe is just one of many good examples. Some countries are doing so well they have already achieved extremely high levels of renewable power now! For example, the following countries are currently generating close to (if not are) 100% Clean electricity:
- Iceland (100%),
- Paraguay (100%),
- Costa Rica (98.5%),
- Norway (98%),
- Uruguay (96.5%),
- Kenya (90.7%),
- New Zealand (83.9%),
- Brazil (80.4%),
- Austria (74.3%),
- Canada (65%)
- Denmark (60.5%)
The main renewables in these countries are hydropower, wind, geothermal, and solar.
There are also large populated regions (not whole countries but parts of a country) that have achieved 100% renewable power. For example, Germany’s Mecklenburg-Vorpommern region in the Northeast and the Schleswig-Hostein region north of Hamburg, New Zealand’s South Island, and Denmark’s Samsø island, are all at 100% (or higher), according to a September 2018 international study. Also, both Quebec and British Columbia in Canada are at nearly 100% renewable power.
As fast as the prices for solar, wind, and batteries are dropping, the renewables trend is spreading! The prices are dropping so fast that BNEF projects that the power from batteries combined with renewables becomes on the same level as the coal and gas for dispatchable generation (power that can be used when it is needed by the grid operators, even if the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining).
BNEF analysts explain that “combining batteries, demand response, and fast-ramping natural gas plants for peak power generation helps wind and solar reach more than 80% penetration in some markets. When you add in the other forms of renewable power — such as hydropower and geothermal — total renewable generation becomes 90% or more.”
All in all, Europe is transitioning the fastest, with Germany in the lead. Throughout the coming decade, Germany will phase out coal and nuclear — and renewables will provide more than 82% of the country’s power. “By 2050, renewables provide 96% of generation, reducing Germany’s emissions by 97% compared to today,” BNEF projects.
Meanwhile, a transition to nearly 100% renewables in Australia is likely by 2050, say Australia’s leading scientific research organization (CSIRO) as well as business leaders like National Australia Bank chair Ken Henry, “simply because it’s the cost-effective thing to do in the face of declining clean tech prices.”
There is one lagging country however, according to BNEF’s projections the United States will be at only 43% renewables penetration in 2050 unless big changes are made.
