An industrial revolution is inevitable for the African continent. Its economy and population have surged, both factors which will require the need for power. Now, the path Africans decide to take from this point on will make the difference between saving millions of lives or causing millions of deaths. It all depends on if they choose renewables or fossil fuels at this turning point in the continent.
A study by researchers from the University of Leicester and Harvard University found that if Africa chooses to be powered by fossil fuels, almost 50,000 people could die prematurely every year from fossil fuel emissions by 2030. The countries that will be affected the most by such an unfortunate ill choosing are South Africa, Nigeria, and Malawi. The research has been published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.
Senior author of the paper Eloise Marais, Associate Professor at the University of Leicester, and a graduate student of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science (SEAS) said:
Our work shows the substantial health benefit of shifting to clean energy sources in Africa, which we hope can help incentivize the transition towards renewable energy over fossil fuels.
Africa is so lucky to be at the cusp of an industrial revolution now that renewables are cheaper and more efficient than ever. Will they take advantage of this and go green, bypassing the dependence of fossil fuels altogether? Will they take the unique opportunity to harness their abundant renewable sources like wind, solar, and geothermal to avoid poisoning the air they breathe? We can only hope so! Europe, America, China, and India are suffering the consequences of fossil fuels. Africa can avoid going down the same dark road if they choose wisely now.
Joel Schwartz, Professor of Environmental Epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and co-author of the study, said:
Africa has the opportunity to avoid the mistakes that much of the rest of the world has made in electricity generation and transportation. The technology to avoid these mistakes already exists. Making these choices for clean energy will greatly benefit the health of Africans.
Loretta Mickley, Senior Research Fellow at SEAS and co-author of the study, added:
Our work suggests that the countries of Africa can show the way toward cleaner energy, with benefits for both the earth’s climate and the air that millions breathe.
Currently, many African countries are working to increase fossil-fuel power plants and vehicle infrastructure, so the researchers focused on air pollution from these categories. For instance, South Africa is commissioning the biggest dry-cooled coal-fired power plant on the planet. Meanwhile, Ghana, Namibia, and Mozambique are all turning to powerships – offshore power plants that generate electricity using dirty residue from crude oil refining.
The Research
Emissions from all the current power plants in Africa were calculated. Their projected emissions were calculated, too, as well as all emissions of proposed power plants as of November 2017.
Vehicle emissions were calculated based on increases in population. (Population rise is strongly linked to vehicle usage).
All the data was then plugged into the GEOS-Chem global transport model – an open-source pollution model developed and housed at Harvard University.
The Results
Thirteen thousand people across the continent would die prematurely every year from exposure to vehicle emissions.
Thirty-nine thousand people would die from exposure to pollutants from power plants.
Most of the deaths from power plants would be in southern Africa because it’s where most of the power plants are being planned.
However, some other countries that don’t have plans for power plants still show high death rates. This is because pollution from Botswana and South Africa travels by wind and air circulation as far north as Angola!
Conclusion
It only makes sense to start green! Marais said:
This research shows that if we can cut emissions in southern Africa, and South Africa specifically, it can have a far-reaching impact on health.
Africa has been blessed with the advantage of low-cost renewables. The fate of the continent now lies in if they go forward with clean power instead of stepping back into dirty fossil fuels.
