The UK’s attempts to simply “mitigate” the impact of the coronavirus pandemic have proved inadequate. The nation has only come to realize this “in the last few days” and is now shifting to a strategy to “suppress” the outbreak instead. This information comes from a report published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team – a team of experts advising the government.
The team found that the previous strategy being pursued by the government would likely result in hundreds of thousands of people dying and health systems (mostly intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. The strategy was focused on reducing the spread. It involved home isolation of only the suspected cases and their family members. It didn’t include restrictions on broader society.
The report said:
[The mitigation strategy] focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread — reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection.
But the approach was found to be unworkable. Our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over, perhaps by as much as eight times.
That UK strategy that was outlined by Boris Johnson and the chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance would result in an estimated 250,000 deaths in Britain, according to the Imperial College team.
The report continued:
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, due to new data on likely intensive care unit demand based on the experience of Italy and Britain so far.
[A suppression strategy, along the lines of the approach adopted by the Chinese authorities,] aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.
[It requires] a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members, may need to be supplemented by school and university closures.
An intensive intervention package will have to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more).
Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, said:
We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realize it’s not possible to cope with that. We, therefore, conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.
In light of this new council, the prime minister drastically tightened the measures enforced on the British public. The move foreshadows the UK’s intention to impose a suppression strategy. The new rules require everyone to stop “non-essential contact” with other people and avoid clubs, pubs, theaters, and cinemas to decrease the spread of the disease. If anyone starts showing symptoms – such as fever or continuous cough – the entire family must stay at home for 14 days. Those in isolation should avoid leaving the house “even to buy food or essentials.” If anyone goes outside to exercise, they must do so only at a safe distance of at least 6 feet away from others.
A government spokesperson said:
This is a very fast-moving situation. In order to give the most robust scientific advice, SAGE [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] draws upon and considers a range of evidence and views to reach its recommendations. Part of this evidence includes the latest modeling data from a number of experts. All SAGE recommendations are in line with the best current evidence. We will be publishing further evidence shortly.
All these restrictions will remain as long as the virus continues to spread.
