A recent study led by Zeke Hausfather from the University of California, Berkley along with scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA has concluded that climate models dating back to 1970 have accurately predicted global heating.
The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and considered 17 different climate models used between 1970 and 2007. They wanted to take a look at the past simulations for heat-trapping gases and the effect they would have on our environment. They found that the majority of the models were “indistinguishable from what actually occurred.”
Dr. Hausfather on the study:
Climate models are a really important way for us to understand how the climate could change in the future, and now that we have taken a detailed look at how well past climate models have held up in terms of their projections, we are far more confident that our current generation of models are getting it right.
He also goes on to say that in 10 of the 17 models, the temperature predictions were very close to the temperatures that occurred. Scientists got the physics right in the majority of the models.
With climate models, it’s difficult to forecast the future because it depends on two factors. The first is the physics of the atmosphere and the way it reacts to heat-trapping gases. The second is the amount of greenhouse gases that will be emitted.
“We did not focus on how well their crystal ball predicted future emissions of greenhouse gases, because that is a question for economists and energy modelers, not climate scientists,” said Dr. Hausfather. “It is impossible to know exactly what human emissions will be in the future. Physics we can understand, it is a deterministic system; future emissions depend on human systems, which are not necessarily deterministic.”
When the team looked at the models purely from a scientific point of view, 14 of the 17 models had accurate predictions.
“The rate of warming we are experiencing today is pretty much exactly what past climate models projected it would be,” said Hausfather.
Throughout the years, people who have denied climate change have been using climate models as their argument, calling them unreliable. This study proves that climate models for the past 50 years have been correct in the warnings they have been providing us with.
It’s time to truly say nevermind and not even care what climate deniers have to say. They should no longer even have a voice. The fact is, we need immediate action, not by 2050. The major corporations around the world that have most of the money, need to be held accountable and the changes must be implemented.
