Stanford University researcher Marshall Burke, an assistant professor at Stanford’s Department of Earth System Science, found that the improved air quality in China following the drastic measures enforced during the coronavirus outbreak lockdown has potentially saved between 50,000 to 75,000 people from dying prematurely.
Burke shared on G-Feed, a site run by a team of scientists researching the relationship between the environment and society:
The reductions in air pollution in China caused by this economic disruption likely saved twenty times more lives in China than have currently been lost due to infection with the virus in that country.
Overall, about 7 million people die annually from exposure to fine particles in polluted air, according to the World Health Organization. The link between premature deaths and air pollution has been firmly established through a 30-year analysis of 652 cities in 24 countries across six continents. It determined that the higher the level of pollution, the faster people die. Also, where there was more air pollution, or when the air pollution levels rose, there was an increase in related deaths.
During February, the average number of “good quality air days” in Hubei province (the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic) increased by 21.5% compared to the same period last year. NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) pollution monitoring satellites captured images showing the dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions – those released by power plants, vehicles, and industrial facilities – across the country.
Burke decided to conduct a study to find just how much of an impact the lower concentrations of PM2.5 had on public health. PM2.5 is the dangerous tiny particulate matter in emissions that, when inhaled, can move deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream.
He gathered pollution data from four major cities in China from 2016 to 2019. Using the information, he calculated the decline in pollution to be in the range of 15 to 18 micrograms per cubic meter of air (or ug/m3) but rounded the number down to 10 ug/m3 to avoid overestimating the impact. He also factored in that only people living in urban areas would benefit from better air quality.
Burke then gathered existing data showing the health benefits of cleaner air during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. That study found that imposing strict pollution controls that lead to a drastic reduction in emissions dramatically lowered the number of premature deaths among adults over 70 and children under five. The research suggested that monthly mortality of people over 70 years old increased by about 1.4% for every 1ug/m3 increase in PM2.5, and 2.9% for children under five.
Applying those calculations to his study, Burke determined that the two months of cleaner air during the shutdown in China saved as many as 51,700 to 73,000 lives of adults over 70 and 1,400 to 4,000 lives of children under five.
He concluded:
Does this mean pandemics are good for health? No. Instead, it means that the way our economies operate absent pandemics has massive hidden health costs, and it takes a pandemic to help see that.
Although the cleaner air has likely saved lives, the coronavirus outbreak could have caused many other deaths unrelated to being infected with the virus. For instance, people dying due to difficulty in accessing health services for other ailments or even declines in economic well-being.
