As we approach spring and summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, it has many people wondering if the COVID-19 virus will reduce in severity similar to the flu, slowing down its spread during the warmer seasons.
Researchers around the world are studying this, by looking at the spread of the disease, related to the climates to see which ones have been affected the most. There have been several papers published, however, none have been peer-reviewed up to this point.
Elizabeth McGraw, Director for the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University explained some characteristics:
What we know is that they’re [the droplets] better at staying afloat when the air is cold and dry. When the air is humid and warm, [the droplets] fall to the ground more quickly, and it makes transmission harder.
Reason for Optimism
- As reported by Forbes researchers from the U.S., Europe, and China have seen some similarities in the spreading of the virus.
- In China, they reported hot humid cities experienced slower transmission rates.
- The European studies suggest “a degree of climate determination with Coronavirus displaying a preference for cool and dry conditions.”
- In the U.S. studies from the University of Maryland and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, both found the virus has spread faster in colder climates with lower humidity.
These studies have shown that more than 90% of the cases have occurred between average temperature means between 28° and 55° F, and the European study showed that less than 5% of the cases were above 64°F.
The problem at this point maybe that even if the warmer weather can slow the spread, the disease is spreading at a very rapid rate right now. Marc Lipsitch, Director of the Center for Communicable Disease explains:
The short answer is that while we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent. Even seasonal infections can happen ‘out of season’ when they are new” due to their “temporary but important advantage: few or no individuals are immune to them.
This virus is not going to just run its course, Columbia University epidemiologist Micaela Martinez said; “For the first wave, the seasonality is not as relevant,” she says. “We can’t expect [the virus] to just go away.”
Currently, with so little known about SARS-CoV-2, the best thing people can do is to isolate themselves from contact with others. This is why so many countries have called for lockdowns and to take this disease very seriously. We can walk around for days without knowing we have it, infecting people we come in contact with.
Lipsitch recently posted; “While we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent.”
It’s not a bad thing to have hope and hold out some optimism that warmer temperatures will slow the spreading of this virus, but it seems people really cannot be careful enough during these times.
Micaela Martinez sums it up:
One of the main drivers of epidemics are contact rates. It can make a huge impact on disease transmission. Just like it can drive epidemics, it can stop them.
