Over 100,000 deaths have been prevented across Europe thanks to the strong social distancing measures implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19. New models coming from an analysis by Imperial College London researchers show how the protective measures have had a massively positive impact on public health.
The research estimated the potential impact of interventions – such as school closures and national lockdowns – in eleven European countries (including Italy, Spain, and the UK) to counter the coronavirus pandemic. It found that as many as 120,000 deaths may have been avoided in all. The analysis also found that the proportion of people to have been infected with coronavirus may only be about 2-12% of the population across the 11 countries (2.7% in the UK).
This is the thirteenth report to be released by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling. The work is being conducted within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (GIDA), as well as the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), and in collaboration with Imperial’s Department of Mathematics.
The unprecedented efforts to manage the epidemic have been aimed at preventing an unmanageable rise in cases that would overload health care capacity. Fortunately, they appear to be working.
Dr. Samir Bhatt, report author, and Senior Lecturer from the School of Public Health said:
It is, of course, a difficult time for Europe, but governments have taken significant steps to ensure health systems do not get overwhelmed. There is sound evidence that these have started to work and have flattened the curve.
We believe a large number of lives have been saved. However, it is too soon to say if we have managed to fully control epidemics and more difficult decisions will need to be taken in the coming weeks.
Dr. Seth Flaxman, the first author on the latest study from the Department of Mathematics, added:
Even as the death toll continues to mount, we see enough signal in the data to conclude that sustained, drastic actions taken by European governments have already saved lives by driving down the number of new infections each day.
But because these interventions are very recent in most countries, and there is a lag between infection and death, it will take longer—from days to weeks—for these effects to be reflected in the number of daily deaths.
In the latest research, the team used real-time daily data from the European Centre of Disease Control (ECDC) on the number of deaths in the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Austria, Denmark, Belgium, Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden. They aimed to model the likely impact of interventions in place on minimizing loss of life.
The models were based on the average number of new infections caused by each infected person – also known as ‘reproductive numbers.’ Any changes in reproductive numbers seen in the models were assumed to be a result of the interventions being implemented. Since the reproductive numbers decreased, it means the number of deaths was reduced. Furthermore, as long as the countries keep the responses in place until transmission drops to lower levels, even more, mortality will be averted.
Professor Axel Gandy, Chair of Statistics within the Department of Mathematics, explained:
Our results suggest that interventions such as social distancing or lockdowns have already saved many lives and will continue to save lives. The impact of the pandemic is extreme – but it would have been much worse without the interventions. Keeping interventions in place is crucial for controlling it.
The report also estimates the number of people to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 – between 7 and 43 million across all eleven countries up to Marth 28th. Which is between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.
The researchers note that the countries they analyzed are those with more advanced epidemics who implemented earlier interventions. Therefore, the findings don’t translate the same for every part of the world. The current social distancing measures must remain in place for now as they continue to monitor the trends in cases and deaths. Once they have the reassurance that the transmission of the coronavirus is slowing, the measures can be reevaluated.
Professor Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology within the School of Public Health, said:
Europeans, like many people elsewhere, have changed their lives profoundly in recent weeks. This report makes clear early evidence of the benefits of these social distancing measures. By keeping our distance from each other, we limit the opportunities for the virus to spread and reduce the risks of illness and even death among those around us.
Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of J-IDEA at Imperial, added:
This analysis shows that the interventions European countries have put in place have significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19. However, it is not yet clear whether or how quickly these measures will cause the numbers of new cases to decline. Data collected in the next two weeks will be crucial to refining our assessment of this key point.
Report author Dr. Swapnil Mishra, a Research Associate within the School of Public Health, said:
We implement a novel scientific model of the epidemic within a robust statistical framework. It is a fully Bayesian analysis, so we do not just look at a single scenario, but rather thousands of plausible scenarios and counterfactuals. Our analysis suggests in these difficult times interventions are required and necessary to keep the pandemic in control.
The report has been published on the MRC GIDA report website for public viewing.
