The only way we’ll be able to limit global warming to below 2°C is if we decarbonize the world by 2050 at the latest. This will require a comprehensive transformation of land and energy use systems. Emissions need to be halved every ten years from here on out to reach climate goals.
Searching for a way as to how we can achieve this net-zero-carbon by 2050 goal, an interdisciplinary team of researchers investigated potential tipping mechanisms that could spark rapid and constructive societal changes. They were searching for tipping points that would lead to climate stabilization and overall sustainability.
Activating a tipping mechanism could engender a transition rapidly enough for meeting the targets of the Paris climate agreement. The way things are now, we’re not transitioning fast enough to hit the targets.
The answer to “what has to be done?” is known; we need to eliminate the excessive generation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by phasing out our reliance on fossil fuels. However, “how we are doing that” is not yet clear. The problem is the social dynamics involved, and the sheer scale of the shift required to accomplish this feat is monumental.
This new study focuses on precisely how society can be influenced to change quickly enough to save the planet. The team of climate change experts identified six elements they say could spark societal change towards planetary sustainability and climate stabilization. The findings have been published in PNAS.
Ilona M. Otto, a sociologist and economist from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, said:
From the energy sector to financial markets to our cities – we were able to pin down social tipping elements and identify concrete interventions that might activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behavioral patterns, and social norms.
The multi-faceted study drew upon surveying, workshopping, and an assessment of academic and scientific literature. The team analyzed elements that could presumably help society limit global warming and transition to a carbon-neutral state.
The six tipping mechanisms they identified are to be used as a roadmap to achieve “rapid socio-economic transformation pathways,” Otto wrote. They can also be used to “explore narratives for a decarbonized future in 2050,” he continued. The six mechanisms do not make up a complete list, but they’re a good start to help us meet climate goals.
Social tipping interventions include:
- Incentivizing decentralized energy generation while removing fossil-fuel subsidies.
- Building new carbon-neutral cities.
- Divesting from assets connected to fossil fuels.
- Exposing the moral implications of fossil fuels.
- Strengthening climate engagement and education.
- Disclosing data on greenhouse gas emissions.
Societies have already adopted many of these mechanisms; however, whether or not any have reached a tipping point resulting in a rapid societal transformation is up for debate. Regardless, the researchers remain optimistic, pointing out positive signs, such as the phenomenon of school students conducting climate strikes.
The authors write in their paper:
The movement is causing ‘irritations’ in personal world views and thus might be changing peoples’ norms and values and the ways of thinking and acting, possibly leading to changes in policies and regulations, infrastructure development, as well as individual consumption and lifestyle decisions.
The value of such realizations and changes need to be linked to a broader shift in governance, society, and business. Doing so will reduce the friction hindering the adoption of carbon-neutral lifestyles.
PIK’s director, Johan Rockström, said:
Awareness of global warming is high but social norms to fundamentally shift behavior are not. This is a mismatch that science alone cannot fix. For individuals to live a carbon-free lifestyle must be made easy… but on the longer-term a new social equilibrium is needed in which climate protection is recognized as a social norm, otherwise, shocks on the financial markets or economic crises could destroy progress in decarbonization.
The researchers conclude that for us to succeed, we need “contagious dynamics” that spread simultaneously and exponentially within politics, society, and the economy to reach our climate goals.
