The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) history is deeply rooted in fossil fuels. However, its latest report – the 464-page World Energy Outlook 2020 – indicates that solar power is now the “cheapest electricity in history.”
While the past decade saw the growth in solar power (and wind power) worldwide, this coming decade will be its shining years. The tipping point currently in effect (involving electricity from solar farms becoming cheaper than fossil fuel power plants) ensures that.
The World Economic Forum reported:
The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20–50% cheaper than thought.
The IEA writes:
Renewables grow rapidly in all our scenarios, with solar at the center of this new constellation of electricity generation technologies. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source of electricity. Still, solar is the main driver of growth as it sets new records for deployment each year after 2022, followed by onshore and offshore wind.
To take advantage of this momentum, governments must impose policies to support solar and halt subsidizing fossil fuels. The faster the acceleration of transition, the better our situation will be with the global climate.
Strong support can also make the solar market cheaper yet. For example, China’s solar power is considerably less expensive than Europe or the US because the Chinese government promotes and works to accelerate its growth.
Eventually, no matter what the policies are, solar and wind will begin to take over coal and natural gas just by outcompeting it in cost. It’s illogical to build a new power plant that is more expensive and polluting when a cheaper solar power plant or wind farm can be made. The cost of installing rooftop solar on the house is also less than buying the electricity from the grid, so more people will begin to do so.
There will be record-breaking additions of new solar capacity yearly from now on, and renewables – led by the “new king” solar – will likely overtake coal by 2025 as the world’s largest source of power.
However, this doesn’t mean global oil use will decline in the coming years, even if it’s at its peak unless there’s intense climate action. Demand for gas may even rise 30% by 2040 – if policy response to global warming doesn’t step up. Individual behavior changes are also required to reach net-zero by 2050.
Behavioral shifts include turning down the air conditioning, switch to line-drying laundry, cutting down on flights, slower driving speeds, and working from home. The report estimates that if one-fifth of the global workforce worked from home just one day a week, it would save about 18m tons of CO2 from being emitted yearly. Governments could influence 60% of these changes through widespread legislation.
