Even though electric vehicles (EVs) are expensive, a recent study shows that green transportation could save the US tens of billions of dollars per year in the long run. The analysis used climate modeling and data on public health and vehicle fleets to show that EVs could prevent many premature deaths and significant damages brought by air pollution and climate change.
Internal combustion engines (ICEs) are a massive contributor to the air pollution that covers major cities around the globe and are responsible for millions of premature deaths each year. With diesel engines, the fuel burns and releases nitrogen oxide (NOx) into the atmosphere. This NOx reacts with compounds in the atmosphere to create lingering clouds of pollution that can lead to long-term health conditions such as heart disease, lung cancer, and stroke.
Daniel Peters, the study’s lead author, explained:
A good example is to look at nitrogen oxides (NOx), a group of chemicals produced by fossil-fuel combustion. NOx itself is damaging to respiratory health, but when it’s exposed to sunlight and volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere, ozone and particulate matter can form.
The team used a chemistry-climate model to simulate the following:
- How these pollutants interact with the weather
- Emissions from other sources including power generation
- How the picture could alter depending on what percentage of EVs were on the road
This information was then combined with publicly available health data to determine the health impacts of several different EV-uptake scenarios.
Under one scenario, the team drew on US vehicle fleet and emissions data from 2014, where 25% of the ICE-powered cars on the road were replaced with EVs; it would have prevented 250 million tons of CO2 entering the atmosphere.
The scientists then assigned dollar values to the climate and public health damages that the levels of EV uptake would avoid, to measure the overall savings or costs of such events. Finally, these were calculated through a metric known as the value of statistical life and standard policy tools used to measure the social cost of carbon.
Daniel Horton, a senior author of the study, said:
The social cost of carbon and value of statistical life is much-studied and much-debated metrics. But they are regularly used to make policy decisions. It helps put a tangible value on the consequences of emitting largely intangible gases into the public sphere that is our shared atmosphere.
The results showed that the US would save around US$17 billion each year in the scenario where 25% of ICE cars were replaced with EVs. In another scenario, those savings could increase to $70 billion a year if 75% of ICE cars were replaced, along with avoiding hundreds of thousands of premature deaths.
Horton added:
From an engineering and technological standpoint, people have been developing solutions to climate change for years. But we need to rigorously assess these solutions. This study presents a nuanced look at EVs and energy generation and found that EV adoption not only reduces greenhouse gases but saves lives.
The study was published on Aug 13, in the journal GeoHealth.
