Today’s world is 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than pre-industrial times – just 0.3 degrees Celsius (0.55 degrees Fahrenheit) under the more stringent of the two goals set by the Paris climate accord. This legally binding international treaty aims to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while pursuing the means to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. This might not be possible and certainly won’t be if we continue down the path we’re going. We must reduce global greenhouse gas emissions substantially to succeed.
On May 27, 2021, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a temperature forecast for the next five years. There’s a 40% chance that at least one of them will be 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) higher and may even push past that limit.
Last year, WMO meteorologists forecasted a 20% chance of it happening. Improvements in technology are responsible for the odds doubling. The new equipment shows the global temperature has warmed “more than we thought already,” especially over the lightly monitored polar regions.
Climate scientist Leon Hermanson at the United Kingdom’s Met Center, who helped on the forecast, stated:
It’s a warning that we need to take strong action.
The forecast for this year alone already shows large parts of land in the Northern Hemisphere reaching 1.4 degrees (0.8 degrees Celsius) warmer; Also, the US Southwest’s drought will continue.
Climate scientist Michael Mann at Pennsylvania State University, who wasn’t involved in the WMO report, said if only one or two years goes above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), that’s OK. What’s worrisome is if the overall trend of temperatures stays above that level. Unfortunately, Mann is “almost certain” the world will exceed the warming threshold at least once in the coming years. But for it to remain o probably won’t happen for a decade and can still be prevented.
A recent study by a different group of researchers found that one-third of humans will face “near-unliveable” heat within five decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut. It’s already beginning to happen now. July 25, 2019, was the UK’s hottest day ever recorded, and over 200 more people died that day.
The last decade (2010-2019) is evidence of how the climate crisis is accelerating. It was the hottest period ever recorded. But even before that, every decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the one before. All years after 2013 have been hotter than any year prior. The three hottest years ever recorded were 2015, 2016, and 2019.
These freakishly hot past six years have resulted in unnaturally hot temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctica, massive heatwaves in the US, Europe, and India, raging wildfires across the globe from Alaska to Australia to Ukraine, and flooding across east Africa. Furthermore, the Atlantic Ocean is the hottest it’s ever been in 2,900 years.
The IPCC found that the ocean has absorbed over 93% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions over the past five decades. Sea-surface temperatures are so severe that glaciers are melting faster than ever before and even the deepest parts of the ocean are warming. Satellite data shows how the Arctic Sea ice shrank to its second-lowest extent since records began. Meanwhile, Antarctica has been experiencing heat waves so severe that its Eagle Island lost one inch of snowpack melt in just one day.
As a result of all this ice melting in the poles and the ocean water expanding (the molecules expand as they heat up), global sea levels are now an average of 3.4 inches above what they were 30 years ago. Nearly every measurement station along the US coastlines in 2019 showed an acceleration in sea-level rise.
All this and more show that rising temperatures aren’t only making the Earth hotter; they’re altering the entire planet and human life as we know it. The consequences of the climate crisis are profound. For further example, rising temperatures on the ocean surface are affecting coral reefs with unprecedented bleaching events. Another recent study found that ocean warming and acidification could eradicate coral reefs by the end of the century. The Great Barrier Reef near Australia has already lost 50% of its coral since 1995.
The heat and sea-level rise also intensify hurricanes. The WMO report for the next few years also predicts a 90% chance that the world will set another record by 2026 for the hottest year. The Atlantic Ocean will also brew more potentially disastrous hurricanes than it used to continuously.
The first year in which temperatures reached over 1 degree Celcius above the average from 1850 to 1900 was 2015, and it’s been above that ever since. The rate of change has been swift, and we’ll likely breach the 1.5 degrees Celcius threshold soon as the forecast predicts indeed.
Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and show no sign of diminishing. The UN published research recently, indicating that the annual carbon emissions are now 4% higher than they were in 2015 – the year countries signed the Paris Agreement on climate change. Global emissions should have gone down since then, and the fact that they haven’t is a terrible sign.
