On August 25, 2022, California announced it would phase out new gasoline and diesel vehicle sales by 2035, setting ambitious goals along the way. California is the nation’s largest auto market. The United States transportation sector will be affected dramatically by this decision.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has long forced automakers to stricter emissions standards than those the U.S. federal government imposed. However, when CARB finalized its vote on the new Advanced Clean Cars II regulations on Thursday, it laid down a significant challenge to the auto industry.
Over 16% of new automobiles and light-duty trucks sold in California in the first three months of 2021 were zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This is up from 12.41% in 2021 and 7.78% in 2020.
According to the new law, that percentage will increase to 35% by 2026, 51% by 2028, 76% by 2031, and 100% by 2035. After 2035, combustion-powered automobiles and light trucks will be outright banned from being sold.
Automakers must also follow new battery performance regulations. Battery-electric vehicles must retain at least 70% of the car’s range for ten years or 150,000 miles. This increases to 80% for cars built after 2030. Warranties must also guarantee at least 70% battery capacity for eight years or 100,000 miles. This percentage increases to 75% for models made after 2031.
There are a few minor exceptions; the definition of a ZEV is broad enough to include a portion of plug-in hybrids, as long as they can travel more than 50 miles (80 km) on battery alone. However, these vehicles cannot account for more than 20% of a manufacturer’s overall ZEV sales. Meanwhile, heavy trucks are not yet affected by the prohibition. The rule also exempts people from buying or selling second-hand combustion vehicles after 2035 and does not oblige car owners to get rid of the gas-powered cars they already own.
Environmental groups previously called for 100 percent zero-emission vehicles to be adopted by 2030, five years sooner than the new 2035 rule.
By 2040, tailpipe emissions, the largest source of anthropogenic carbon emissions, are expected to be reduced by 50%, according to CARB, making way for a race to zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This reduction in fossil fuel emissions is necessary to reduce the impacts of climate change. The state has suffered from record-breaking droughts, wildfires, and air pollution worsened by the climate crisis in recent years.
In addition to being a major step in favor of decarbonization, CARB claims that the health care savings from the air quality improvements of reduced fossil fuel consumption will total about US$13 billion.
“This regulation is one of the most important efforts we have ever carried out to clean the air,” said Air Resources Board Chair Liane Randolph. “Our previous regulations to make cars cleaner made improvements, but those improvements were incremental. This regulation will essentially end vehicle emissions altogether.”
More than 40% of Americans live with unhealthy levels of air pollution, according to the American Lung Association.
“This is a really important, historic turning point in cleaning up pollution,” said William Barrett, national clean air advocacy director for the American Lung Association.
According to state officials, the plan could also reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide emissions by more than 25% by 2037. It’s estimated that the rule will result in over 1,400 fewer deaths from heart disease, and it will help Californians to avoid over 700 emergency room visits for asthma between 2026 and 2040.
The energy sector, which will supply this massive flood of battery-powered vehicles, must be cleaned up next. “Something in the order of about 90% of the lithium that’s used in batteries is processed in China right now, which is not a desirable situation,” says Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst with Guidehouse Insights.
According to the air resources board, there are 1.3 million zero-emission vehicles registered in California, which accounts for 43% of the country’s total despite only owning 10 percent of the nation’s cars.
Many other states have signed on to follow California’s regulations on ZEVs, including Massachusetts, Maine, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado. Washington has also declared that it would ban combustion cars by 2035.
Currently, 15 CARB states have implemented California’s ZEV requirements, and two more accept the state’s Low-Emission Vehicle (LEV) regulations for non-commercial cars. Those 15 states plus California account for around 40% of the United States car market.
The U.S. government recently passed an inflation reduction bill, which focuses heavily on electric vehicle incentives and reforms the E.V. tax credit. Biden has also signed an Executive Order targeting 50% E.V. Sales by 2030.
The government will allocate billions of federal funds to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles nationwide by offering financial assistance to consumers who purchase them and by providing incentives to companies that manufacture them.
Outside the United States, the European Union declared in June that it would also ban internal combustion engine cars from 2035. The U.K. has also declared a ban on all non-ZEVs by 2035.
