A new report by Agora Energiewende and Ember found that renewables overtook fossil fuels in both the EU and UK in 2020. The milestone has been achieved over a season before, but this was the first time that’s happened over a year. And while the progress is fantastic news, there’s still much more work to be done if Europe is to meet its ambitious climate targets.
To hit the target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the EU has to double the pace of renewables deployment through the 2020s. This decade’s average tally for new yearly additions of wind and solar capacity will have to be around 100 terawatt-hours. Last year those two sources only generated an extra 55 terawatt-hours. The average annual expansion through the 2010s was 38 terawatt-hours.
Patrick Graichen, Agora Energiewende’s director, said:
To achieve the 100 terawatt-hours of annual expansion required for climate-neutrality, however, the level [of] 2020 needs to be doubled. The economic recovery after the pandemic must not slow down climate protection. We…need a strong climate policy — such as the Green Deal — to guarantee steady progress.
Doubling new renewable energy generation isn’t as challenging as it sounds, and it’s definitely not impossible. Forecasts by wind and solar trade associations have even shown a possible increase in capacity of that magnitude on the horizon.
For example, WindEurope expects the installed capacity of wind energy in 2020 to double by 2030 so long as the UK and the EU-27 deliver on their National Energy and Climate Plans for the decade. WindEurope’s figure even exceeds 100 gigawatts (with UK and EU targets combined).
And SolarPower Europe forecasts solar deployment will be 35.1 GW as early as 2024. In 2020 it was 18.2GW, meaning that before mid-decade, it’ll already have doubled.
The report indirectly highlights how much potential for growth remains when it breaks down the electricity mix of the EU by country. Several major economies – including Italy, France, Netherlands, and Poland – all generate less than 20% of their electricity from wind and solar.
The best part is, solar is now the cheapest electricity in history, and the technology is more efficient than ever. Meaning, newly installed gigawatts offer more for the money. One gigawatt of wind and solar added this decade with the better solar modules will deliver more energy than one GW added last decade.
Plus, now we have new bifacial solar panels with trackers that move toward sunlight, smarter grids, better operational practices, and energy storage pairings, enabling less curtailed power.
The capital cost for renewables is also improving. IREA research shows that $1 million invested in solar in 2019 could buy over 1 megawatt. In 2010 that same $1 million could only get you 213 kilowatts.
Plus, renewables could get a 10% boost from oil majors. According to a CMS and Capital Economics study, increasing investments from the sector could surpass $30 billion annually. As of last year, renewables attracted just over $300 billion of global investment overall.
