While the bottom 100 countries only account for 3.5%, the top three greenhouse gas emitters (China, the European Union, and the United States) contribute more than half of total global emissions! These three nations contribute 14 times the emissions of the bottom 100. Collectively, the top 10 emitters account for nearly three-quarters of global emissions. If these countries don’t contribute significant action, the world will not be able to tackle climate change successfully.
Climate Action Tracker
Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is a consortium of three research organizations that have been calculating the projected warming from government pledges since 2009. According to the CAT’s annual update, if all governments achieve their largely insufficient climate targets, the world will see 3.0ËšC of warming by 2100, twice the 1.5ËšC limit they agreed in Paris three years ago.
In a few countries there has been some progress, but not enough. Overall, government policies lag behind their pledges, which would lead to warming of 3.3˚C if things continue as they are. Even if the governments at least followed through with their planned or additional policies they have in the pipeline, warming would still just be limited to 3.0°C by 2100.
Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said:
Two months ago the world received a strong message from the scientific community – that it’s possible to keep warming to 1.5ËšC. But we have yet to see this translate into action in terms of what governments are prepared to put on the table.
Policy Progress
The CAT update consists of an analysis of how emissions projections have shifted since the Paris Agreement. This year’s examination reveals that there is real movement on the ground, with Argentina, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, the EU, India, and Morocco taking significant steps in the right direction, and with other countries also taking action.
Yvonne Deng of Ecofys, a Navigant company, said:
We are seeing a stirring of new climate policies in the real world: if this were extended and scaled up, these combined efforts could actually begin to bend the emissions curve. But there are some governments delaying global progress: Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, the UAE and the US, and many of these countries are beginning to see the reality of climate change impacts.
Meanwhile, other countries are either moving ahead in some sectors but still lacking in others, not progressing at all, or even worse, increasing emissions. Countries like Norway and Costa Rica are forging ahead with electrifying their transportation and renewable energy, but China’s emissions rose again for a second year running, and Brazil’s elections brought serious global concern.
Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute, said:
We have seen encouraging policy developments with several countries publishing, adopting or reinforcing energy or electricity sector roadmaps. With the prices for renewables dropping roughly a third since Paris, both South Africa and Chile are mapping out strategies to address coal, and renewables are taking off in India.
The Paris Agreement
The Paris Agreement’s main goal is to keep global temperature rise this century to “well below 2ºC,” above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ºC”. Under the agreement, each country determined what it would be willing to do. Such commitments are known as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). So far, 185 countries have ratified or adopted the Paris Agreement meaning their INDC has become their first nationally determined contribution. There is no enforcement mechanism under the Paris Agreement to punish a country for missing a target.
Climate Action Tracker ranks countries based on “(I)NDCs, 2020 pledges, long-term targets and current policies against whether they are consistent with a country’s fair share effort to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5ºC temperature goal.”
The 6 rank categories include; critically insufficient, highly insufficient, insufficient, 2ºC compatible, 1.5ºC Paris Agreement compatible, and role model. Just the top-emitting countries with NDCs appear on the tracker. Here are their ranks listed by Axios with the top 10 global emitters in bold:
Role model:
- None.
1.5ºC Paris Agreement compatible:
- Morocco
- The Gambia
2ºC compatible:
- Bhutan
- Costa Rica
- Ethiopia
- India
- Philippines
Insufficient:
- Australia
- Brazil
- The EU
- Kazakhstan
- Mexico
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Peru
- Switzerland
Highly insufficient:
- Argentina
- Canada
- Chile
- China
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Singapore
- South Africa
- South Korea
- UAE
Critically insufficient:
- Russian Federation
- Saudi Arabia
- Turkey
- United States
- Ukraine
Conclusion
While action in some countries is picking up speed, looking at the big picture, there is far too little movement. The CAT “urges countries to bring their national commitments in line with this global temperature goal when upgrading their Paris Agreement commitments as soon as possible, and latest by 2020.” The way things stand, even if every country that has adopted the Paris Agreement were to meet their pledges, it would not avert the worst effects of climate change. All countries need to revise their commitments to successfully limit climate change.
