Over 1 billion people are likely to be displaced within three decades, as the climate crisis and population overload drive a surge in migration, causing “huge impacts” for both developing and developed countries.
The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), an institute that performs research and advocacy known as a thinktank, produces annual global terrorism and peace indexes. IEP’s latest analysis found that up to 1.2 billion people living in 31 countries aren’t resilient enough to endure ecological threats.
The IEP’s first ecological threat register found that the nineteen countries facing the most significant number of risks, such as food shortages, water scarcity, and areas of greater exposure to natural disasters, are also among the forty least peaceful countries in the world.
However, many of the countries at highest risk from ecological threats, including Uganda, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Angola, are at the same time, predicted to have a considerable population rise. The combination of the climate crises and the surge of populations will only further drive mass displacements.
Steve Killelea, the founder of IEP, said.
This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries. Ecological threats pose serious challenges to global peace. Over the next 30 years, lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation. In the absence of action, civil unrest, riots, and conflict will most likely increase.
The analysis used data from the United Nations and other sources to assess the exposure of eight ecological threats in 157 countries; then, it evaluated their capacity to endure them. It found that out of 157 countries, 141 faced at least one ecological threat by 2050. North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia were the regions facing the highest number of risks.
India and China were found to be most threatened by water scarcity, while Iran, Pakistan, Mozambique, Madagascar, and Kenya, were faced with a mixture of threats and a growing inability to handle them. Pakistan was the country with the most considerable risk of mass migration, followed by Ethiopia and Iran.
The report wrote:
Lack of resilience will lead to worsening food insecurity and competition over resources, increasing civil unrest, and mass displacement. Even small ecological threats and natural disasters could result in mass population displacement.
Countries facing fewer ecological threats and more capable of coping with them, include North America and Europe, but most “will not be immune from wider impacts.” Sixteen countries, including Norway, Ireland, Iceland, and Sweden, face no threat.
According to the analysis, the world’s food demand is projected to grow by 50% by 2050, while available freshwater has dropped by 60% over the last 50 years. To top it off, natural disasters are only expected to rise in frequency due to the climate crisis, meaning some stable countries might become vulnerable by 2050.
