The coal sector has seen better days. There’s been plenty of news about how coal power generation has fallen to record lows – the UK, for example, went coal-free for over two months straight, and Austria ended coal use entirely. All over the world, more coal plants closed than opened this year. Well, the United States has some news now too. So far this year, coal power generation in the country has fallen 30%, and that’s on top of a 42-year low record fall of 16% last year.
Meanwhile, gas-fired generation in the US has taken the limelight and is at an all-time high, surging by 9% in the first half of 2020 in the lower 48 states. Renewables are doing better, too, rising by 5%. Energy prices for natural gas and renewables have been lower than coal due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
However, US coal consumption has been on the decline since it peaked in 2007. Nevertheless, the coronavirus crisis did cause the trajectory of the fall to get steeper. Over 90% of US coal consumption is from electricity generation. If it’s not needed for energy, it’s virtually not needed at all. Meanwhile, a study by Carbon Tracker found that nearly half of all the world’s coal plants will operate at a loss this year.
Natural gas has been the leading source of US power generation in recent years. In 2019 it held a 38% share, followed by coal with 23%, then nuclear with 20%, and renewables 17%. From the start of 2018, the country closed 31 gigawatts of coal power stations and 2.4 gigawatts of nuclear capacity while opening 18 gigawatts of new combined-cycle natural gas plants.
Yet, not everyone is convinced it’s the right transition. Low-cost natural gas plants may be most American utilities go-to option, but there are mounting concerns about their long-term viability. After all, they still emit greenhouse gases – even though less than coal power generators.
Furthermore, many states are beginning to embrace ambitious decarbonization mandates, and utilities are joining in by adopting net-zero targets. With all this eco-conscious activity taking place, renewable energy is becoming a more serious competitor. Wind and solar power emit no greenhouse gases, and they’re renewable.
In the end, the veering away from natural gas will heavily depend on how swiftly costs can fall for emerging clean energy technologies and energy storage – the latter of which is a vital factor. It’s already happening in some states, like California, where communities are choosing to replace gas plants with massive batteries.
Also, renewable energy generation overtook coal power for forty days straight in April. It was the first time in American history that’s ever happened. Things are looking hopeful!
