Around the world, renewable energy has been taking over coal. From Belgium and Austria ending coal use altogether to Britain going a record two months without burning a single lump and Portugal on course to shutting down coal plants ahead of schedule – the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter. Even America saw renewables overtake coal in electricity production for over a month straight.
Now a new study by a US research and advocacy group that tracks fossil fuel development – called the Global Energy Monitor – found that in the first six months of 2020, more coal power generation closed worldwide than started operating. Most of the closures were across Europe and the United States, while Asia was the place that saw some stations still being commissioned. For example, China and India continue to increase their coal power, albeit India has ground to a near halt.
Figures speaking, 21.2GWs of coal power was shut down while only 18.3GWs was commissioned. About 13.7GWs of the closures were in the European Union (8.3GWs) and the US (5.4GWs) alone.
Christine Shearer, Global Energy Monitor’s coal program director, said:
I think this could definitely be a moment where things have slowed down enough that countries rethink their coal plans. The big question mark is China, and what it announces it will do in its 14th five-year plan.
The world’s biggest annual greenhouse gas emitter, China, on the other hand, is dominating coal power development with 190GWs still under construction. The country is home to 90% of generators under construction and nearly two-thirds of the world’s operating plants – which generate half of the world’s operating coal-fired electricity capacity.
India was up there with China, but the coronavirus pandemic has slowed its coal sector down dramatically. Before the outbreak, China and India had a glut of coal power capacity so severe that many of their fleets were running at half capacity.
Astonishingly, Chinese provinces continued to grant permits for the construction of new plants. Meanwhile, India’s coal sector has been struggling to compete with new solar and wind, and India has been radically reducing the amount of coal it planned to build. They wouldn’t have anyone to sell the coal power to since everyone would be opting for the cheaper alternatives instead.
Of course, the biggest instigator of this global decline was the economic shock of the pandemic. Still, increases in carbon pricing and tightening of pollution regulations in the European Union also nudged a record number of coal plants into retirement. In 2019, when there was no COVID-19 to blame, coal-fired generation fell by around 3%. Clean energy has become the cheaper option in many places, and that’s a big selling point for sure.
Tim Buckley, a researcher at the IEEFA, said:
No one is saying it is going to happen in the next five years, but the trajectory is clear. How can you compete with [solar and wind] that has zero marginal cost of supply? They are going to lose. I have zero doubt about it.
According to an analysis by the IPCC, coal power generation needs to fall 75% below current levels by 2030 to remain below 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels – or 50% to keep global heating within 2°C.
