While the coronavirus lockdowns led to some extreme dips in global carbon emissions, a new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals how insignificant they are in the grand scheme of things. For example, energy-related global emissions hit a record 6% in 2021, as the world relied heavily on coal to recover from the economic crisis.
Many people grew hope that the recovery would be sustainable when they witnessed the dramatic decline in CO2 emissions in the early parts of 2020 as the pandemic put a halt to many elements of society. They weren’t entirely wrong, as renewable energy generation in 2021 experienced an all-time high of over 8,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) and combined with nuclear power to deliver a more significant share of global electricity generation than coal.
However, despite this impressive growth in renewables, coal remained a primary contributor to the massive growth seen in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021, which reached 36.3 billion tonnes, the highest level in history. In addition, the observed increase of more than two billion tons is also the largest on record. According to the IEA, this more than cancels out the dips related to the pandemic in 2020.
The analysis shows that 40% of that growth came from coal, which accounted for a record high of 15.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions. The agency suspects part of the reason for this was skyrocketing natural gas prices, which led to more coal being burned in its place. However, emissions from oil remained below their pre-pandemic levels as the crisis continued to affect transportation through 2021, specifically the aviation sector.
The rebounding effect was primarily driven by China, which heavily relies on coal to meet its electricity demands, which grew 10% in 2021. Meanwhile, its overall emissions reached more than 11.9 billion tonnes, making up 33% of the global total. While this 700-TWh increase in demand is the country’s largest-ever, China also had its largest ever increase in renewable electricity output last year.
Even though we have seen temporary dips in global carbon emissions during the pandemic, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still rising. The United Nations Environment Programme reported record levels in 2020 during the pandemic’s early stages and again in 2021, indicating that the brief declines have done nothing to slow the trend.
The IEA stressed:
The world must now ensure that the global rebound in emissions in 2021 was a one-off – and that an accelerated energy transition contributes to global energy security and lower energy prices for consumers.
Unfortunately, the IEA predicts global coal demand will grow by 125 million mt between 2021 and 2024, primarily due to increasing electricity demand in Asia. During that period, annual coal use is forecasted to:
- Rise by 129 million mt in India
- Rise by 135 million mt in China
- Rise by 50 million mt in Southeast Asia
However, it is predicted to drop by 101 million mt in the EU and 77 million mt in the US, as these regions use more gas and generate renewable power. In addition, the IEA estimates coal-fired generation will rise by 12% in Southeast Asia, 11% in India, and 4.1% in China between 2021 to 2024, while a 30% decline is expected in the EU and 21% in the US.
According to the IEA, if these predictions come true, CO2 emissions from coal in 2024 would be more than 3 billion mt higher than required on the path to a net-zero world by 2050. However, on the bright side, UN estimates show that at least 30 countries have pledged not to construct new coal-fired power plants in efforts to meet their climate goals. In addition, South Korea, China, and the G7 nations have also vowed to stop providing government finance for overseas coal power developments.
