Many places around the world have seen an exponential growth trajectory of COVID-19 transmissions, primarily places with slack or no restrictions in place to help stop the spread of the virus. According to the current statistics, every infected person passes it on to an average of 2.5 others, who go on to infect 2.5 more — that is if no measures are taken to isolate the infected from others.
Vox explains it as such:
Think about counting doubles — 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on. How many times would you have to double to get to more than 1 million? 20. How many doubles to get to more than 16 million? 24…So that’s why Covid-19 appears to spread very slowly, and then all at once.
The worldwide number of reported COVID-19 cases went from 75,000 on February 20th to over 153,000 on March 15th. In Italy, the reported cases went from 10,000 on March 11th to 20,000 on March 15th. It doubled in only four days! The growth rate was so fast that the country’s healthcare system couldn’t handle the number of patients coming in, and hospitals had to close their doors to new patients because there just wasn’t any room for them or medical staff available to treat them. This lack of resources is why Italy has an oversized COVID-19 death rate – approximately 7% when the rest of the world is around 2%. And this is precisely why quarantine and lockdowns which require society to self-isolate are so necessary.
When people go out, the virus spreads exponentially, causing a “peaked curve.” The consequence is more people end up having to seek treatment than the healthcare system can accommodate. When people cooperate with implemented “social distancing” guidelines, it “flattens the curve.” The result is fewer people have to seek treatment at any one given time, and the system can treat everyone that needs help. When everyone can get the treatment they need, fewer people die. What is the curve? It is the projected number of people who will contract the coronavirus over time.
The director of the public radio science show “Science Friday”, Charles Bergquist, tweeted a simple metaphor to help people understand:
Your workplace bathroom has only so many stalls. – If everyone decides to go at the same time, there are problems. If the same number of people need to go to the restroom but spread over several hours, it’s all ok.
What the world needs is a flattened curve, meaning we need to spread out the cases as much as possible. Otherwise, there won’t be enough medical equipment, necessary supplies, or doctors to go around. Flattening the curve saves countless lives, and it’s as easy as just doing what you have to do: stay at home and wash your hands!
The Washington Post presents a series of simulations showing how the spread of a virus happens when there is no social distancing, moderate, and complete self-isolation. They make it easy to understand how the spread happens either exponentially or slowly. To check them out, click here.
