A 90% clean grid with capacity dependable enough to meet demands all year long is possible with today’s wind and solar technology. The figures coming from a new study by UC Berkeley and GridLab researchers show that renewables have become so cheap that it’s economically feasible to power a reliable grid by 2035 with them. All past predictions of future scenarios need a major revision because cleaner energy will be cheaper than sticking with fossil fuels.
Co-author Amol Phadke said on a call with Greentech Media reporters:
Previous studies concluded either we need to wait until 2050 to decarbonize or the bills will go up if you decarbonize. I think we really need to revisit these conclusions because of the dramatic decline in costs. The key thing that was very exciting to us, and why we were prompted to do this study, is that the cost declined much faster than all the experts in the field anticipated, including us.
The researchers used updated cost figures for solar, wind, and batteries. They found that it’s cost-effective to retire all coal plants by 2035 while depending on natural gas for only 10% of annual electricity production. The scenario they present also doesn’t require any new construction of gas plants, and the wholesale electricity price would be 13% lower than it is today.
Leaving the target at 90% clean power eases the pressure of running the system only on renewables 24/7 by allowing a leeway of burning a little gas when necessary. In all the seven-year models the researchers conducted for the study, this strategy proved durable for meeting demands reliably under annual variations in weather.
Following this game plan solves other challenges as well. By stopping new gas-plant construction, Americans won’t have to pay for new gas peakers that aren’t even used most of the year, and current operating fleets would have time to depreciate by 2035. Also, by building more wind farms and solar plants regionally, the need for long transmission lines is eliminated, which saves tons of money.
GridLab’s Ric O’Connell said:
As the price of wind and solar have come down dramatically, the…conventional wisdom that wind is only cost-effective in the wind belt in the middle of the country, solar is only cost-effective in the sunny Southwest — that’s not true anymore. While we still need to build significant transmission, most of that transmission is more regional as opposed to interregional.
Despite all this, utilities and states still pick a midcentury goal deadline that is well beyond the tenure of anyone in power today. However, the study also found that federal policy will be necessary to reach the 90% goal. The researchers conducted a No New Policy case to see what would likely happen if they leave it up to the market to pick up new capacity, and the result was a grid with only 53% clean energy by 2035.
Energy Innovation Vice President Sonia Aggarwal said:
Passing federal policy as soon as possible is a huge step in the right direction. At the same time, I think the scale-up of potential deployment within the renewable energy industry will be really important to pay attention to.
To build-out to 90% renewables in 15 years would require about 70 gigawatts’ worth of deployments annually, more than triple the combined wind and solar additions completed in the US in any one year to date. But it’s possible.
The researchers at UC Berkeley also collaborated with the policy firm Energy Innovation to draw out a roadmap showing how the grid can get to a level of 90% clean in just 15 years. The decarbonization proposal includes no new fossil fuel plants, and it lowers rates for consumers. It was also found to create 500,000 additional jobs and save 85,000 lives by improving public health with better air quality.
